Federal IT Physics: Why the System Behaves the Way It Does
- Eric Olson
- Nov 28, 2025
- 2 min read
A practitioner’s introduction to the structural forces behind federal technology.
Overview
Federal IT often appears chaotic from the outside—driven by shifting administrations, urgent mandates, budget turbulence, and a continuous stream of directives. But practitioners know something different: federal IT does not behave randomly. It behaves predictably.
The patterns in spending, policy, modernization, risk posture, and vendor behavior are not accidental. They are governed by a consistent set of structural forces—the “physics” of the federal enterprise. These forces shape outcomes regardless of agency mission, political environment, or technology trend.
This article introduces Federal IT Physics, a practitioner-led framework that explains why federal IT behaves the way it does, and why certain patterns keep repeating across decades.
What Federal IT Physics Explains
Federal IT Physics provides a structured way to understand and analyze:
• Budget gravity and why investment patterns lock into place
O&M dominance, delayed modernization, and the persistent funding asymmetries across agencies.
• Governance forces that determine the pace of change
Oversight, audit, and statutory frameworks that shape CIO authority and enterprise decision-making.
• Risk vectors that drive agency behavior
Compliance pressure, security events, procurement risk, and the fear of public failure.
• Vendor and integrator dynamics
Why certain vendors gain long-term incumbency and how the incentive structures shape the ecosystem.
• Modernization patterns across administrations
The deep structure beneath political shifts—what changes, what doesn’t, and why.
Why It Matters Now
The federal landscape is entering another period of rapid movement—new leadership, shifting policy priorities, budget realignments, cloud expansion, AI adoption, and modernization pressure across agencies.
Understanding the physics behind the system helps leaders:
anticipate the next 12–24 months
identify real constraints vs. perceived ones
interpret agency actions more accurately
decode vendor behavior
see beyond the hype cycles
communicate more effectively across oversight and mission stakeholders
Federal IT Physics is designed for executives, practitioners, industry leaders, and anyone who wants a deeper, structural understanding of the system.
Read the Full Article
You can read the full article on Substack:
About Six Point Perspectives
Six Point Perspectives is an independent, practitioner-led research and advisory firm focused exclusively on the U.S. federal technology ecosystem.We analyze federal spending, governance, modernization, cybersecurity, and market dynamics with depth, clarity, and independence.